Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
It was eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.