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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."